Odds of winning at craps

__________________ and _____________________ Names

In this exercise you should work in pairs. The il dado gambling web cite defines the Pass Line Bet as follows:

You win if the first roll is a natural (7, 11) and lose if it is craps (2, 3, 12). If a point is rolled (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) the exact same number must be repeated before a 7 is thrown in order to win. If 7 is rolled before the point, you lose.

Play four games. How many times did you win? ____________. How many times did you lose? _______________. How often did you need to use the "point" rules? _________.

To compute the odds of winning a Pass-line bet one needs to compute the following (as well as some other things we will discuss later).

  1. __________ Odds of rolling a natural (7,11)
  2. __________ Odds of rolling craps (2, 3, 12)
  3. __________ Odds of rolling a point (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
  4. __________ The Odds of rolling a 7
  5. __________ Odds of rolling anything not a 7

The odds of rolling any die combination is a fraction. Divide the the number of ways that combination can be rolled by the total number of possibilities. The best way to proceed is to fill in the chart like we did in mentor session last week.

6 by 6 graph

Count the number of ways, and then divide by the total possible combinations, divide and fill in the blanks for each of the odds. Be accurate to 6 places to the right of the decimal place.

Now you must combine the odds in the right way to get the correct answer.

  1. __________ Odds winning with a Natural
  2. __ 0.025 __ Odds winning with a point of 4
  3. __________ Odds winning with a point of 5
  4. __________ Odds winning with a point of 6
  5. __________ Odds winning with a point of 8
  6. __________ Odds winning with a point of 9
  7. __________ Odds winning with a point of 10
  8. __________ Total (sum of the above)

To determine the odds of winning with a point (4,5,6,8,9,10), follow the procedure outlined below. I have performed the calculations for the point of 4. You need to do it for 5,6,8,9,10. Be accurate to 3 decimal places.


flowchart

Proceed by creating a table for odds of rolling again in each round. Note that the odds of rolling something other than a 4 or 7 is .75 but for each point it will be something different.

You can stop the table when the odds of rolling again in the nth round are less than 0.01 (that took 8 rounds for a point of 4). Then create a table for winning in each round. Add up all the winning odds for each point.

HINT

Note that winning by a point of 4 has exactly the same odds as winning by a point of 10. Why is this so? Are there other times when the odds are the same. If so, list them here:
  1. points of 4 and 10 have the same odds




  2. ...

If the casino pays off with a ratio of 1 dollar for every dollar bet, do you think you should make a pass-line bet? How come?


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