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Employment losses during last thirty-five years of recessions
Employment Loss Integral:
To capture the length and depth of recessions, both the amount of loss
and the duration can be accounted for by the integral of the loss over
time:
(graph)
| 1974 | 1981 | 1990 | 2001 | 2009 |
|
| 26 |
45 |
30 |
59 |
244 |
Percent-months |
Through March, 2013 (last two months preliminary)
Seasonally adjusted data
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Out of work
Long term unemployment (27 weeks or more), as a percentage
of the unemployed population.
For five years from the start of the the recession as measured by
peak employment.
After the 2001 recession, the share of long term unemployment never
went down to the levels seen after other recessions. The lowest
value was over 15%, while in previous recessions going back to 1970
the lowest number was 10% or under.
It's unclear what the maximum number for this is: at what point do the
people leaving the system create a steady state?
Through March, 2013.
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We don't make them like we used to
Employment in manufacturing for the last forty years.
Expressed as number of people employed and as a percentage of the
workforce.
Looks like a secular trend to me…
Through August, 2012.
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Month to month change in employment
Month to month change in employment, four month moving average.
NBER recessions indicated in gray.
Through February, 2012
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Lost decade?
Employment since February, 2001 (peak before 2001 recession).
In no previous recession in the last forty years has the number of people
employed gone lower than the previous peak. In this recession, the
number of people employed has gone lower than the previous trough,
and we are just now getting back to where we were did ten years ago
in 2001.
Note this does not take into account the need for new jobs to be
created for rising population.
Through June, updated February 2012
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Local Picture
Oregon employment in technology sectors for the last twenty years.
NBER recessions indicated by gray bars.
We are currently about where we were at the end of 1997.
Through November, 2012.
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Indications
Employment changes from peak for recessions plotted against the
Chicago Fed National Activity Index three month moving average.
NBER recessions indicated in gray.
Through August, 2011
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Unemployment
For completeness, the unemployment rate.
Note that after the two previous recessions (1991 & 2001) the unemployment
rate continued to rise after the end of the NBER recession, while in previous
recessions it fell at the end of the recession.
NBER recessions indicated in gray.
Through December, 2012
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Labor Participation Rate: changes after start of recession.
Looks like another trend…
Through November, 2011.
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Long Term Participation Rate
Labor participation rate for the past forty years. Ages 25-54 are used to
eliminate effects of aging population.
NBER recessions indicated in gray.
Through December, 2012
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Employment/Popluation Ratio: changes after start of recession.
Another distinctive graph.
Through November, 2011.
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Industrial capacity and production
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Industrial capacity: changes after start of recession.
This data has experienced a significant downward revision over time…
Through September, 2011.
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Industrial Capacity: long term changes
Month to month change in industrial capacity, three month moving average.
Interesting that a decline in capacity, even in recessions, is a recent
event, and the large overall negative change in this recession is unique
in the past forty years.
This data has experienced a significant downward revision over time…
NBER recessions indicated in gray.
Through September, 2011
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Industrial production during last thirty-five years of recessions
Through November, 2012
|
| Peak Industrial Production |
| Recession | Peak | Recovered |
| 1974 | 11/1973 | 2/1977 |
| 1981 | 8/1981 | 11/1983 |
| 1990 | 9/1990 | 5/1992 |
| 2001 | 9/2000 | 10/2004 |
| 2008 | 12/2007 | |
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|
| Peak Employment |
NBER Recessions |
| Recession | Date |
Start | End |
| 1970 | March, 1970 |
12/1969 | 11/1970 |
| 1974 | July, 1974 |
11/1973 | 3/1975 |
| 1980 | March, 1981 |
1/1980 | 7/1980 |
| 1981 | July, 1981 |
7/1981 | 11/1982 |
| 1990 | June, 1990 |
7/1990 | 3/1991 |
| 2001 | February, 2001 |
3/2001 | 11/2001 |
| 2008 | January, 2008 |
12/2007 | 6/2009 |
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