Rick's ECE home page


ECE Masters Degree August 2008

Graduate Certificate in Computer Architecture & Design December 2007


Senior engineer at Electro Scientific Industries

High performance hard realtime H/W-S/W system design
C/C++ for industrial systems control
Embedded systems hardware and software (Atmel AVR, TigerSHARC DSP)
RTL design, simulations in C/C++, and behavioral implementation in VHDL
FPGA development
Computer graphics and computational geometry
Linux device drivers
Project management
Microsoft MFC GUI design
Resume

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Projects

ISA Emulators: PDP-8 & HP-35

HDL Processors: PDP-8 & HP-35

IMap: OGL graphics app

LFSR: a linear feedback shift register demonstrator

AVR: a clock using an AVR processor

Comparisons of some economic indicators in the US during recessions

(Click image for larger view in new window)

Updated only irregularly.

Employment

Employment Employment losses during last thirty-five years of recessions.
Since the number of people employed has exceeded the pre-recession levels this graph is no longer updated, though the gap in percentage of working age people employed has not recovered.


Employment Loss Integral:
To capture the length and depth of recessions, both the amount of loss and the duration can be accounted for by the integral of the loss over time: (graph)
1974 1981 1990 2001 2009  
26 45 30 59 255 Percent-months


Through May, 2014

Seasonally adjusted data
Out of work Out of work
Long term unemployment (27 weeks or more), as a percentage of the unemployed population.

For five years from the start of the the recession as measured by peak employment.

After the 2001 recession, the share of long term unemployment never went down to the levels seen after other recessions. The lowest value was over 15%, while in previous recessions going back to 1970 the lowest number was 10% or under.

It's unclear what the maximum number for this is: at what point do the people leaving the system create a steady state?

Through December, 2013.
Manufacturing We don't make them like we used to

Employment in manufacturing for the last forty years.

Expressed as number of people employed and as a percentage of the workforce.

Looks like a secular trend to me…

Through December, 2013.


Employment Changes Month to month change in employment
Month to month change in employment, four month moving average.

NBER recessions indicated in gray.

Through February, 2012
Lost Decade Lost decade?
Employment since February, 2001 (peak before 2001 recession).
In no previous recession in the last forty years has the number of people employed gone lower than the previous peak. In this recession, the number of people employed has gone lower than the previous trough, and we are just now getting back to where we were did ten years ago in 2001.

Note this does not take into account the need for new jobs to be created for rising population.

Through June, updated February 2012
Oregon Local Picture

Oregon employment in technology sectors for the last twenty years. NBER recessions indicated by gray bars.

We are currently about where we were at the end of 1997.

Through November, 2012.

Indicators Indications
Employment changes from peak for recessions plotted against the Chicago Fed National Activity Index three month moving average.

NBER recessions indicated in gray.

Through February, 2012
Unemployment Unemployment
For completeness, the unemployment rate.

Note that after the two previous recessions (1991 & 2001) the unemployment rate continued to rise after the end of the NBER recession, while in previous recessions it fell at the end of the recession.

NBER recessions indicated in gray.

Through December, 2012
Participation Rate Labor Participation Rate: changes after start of recession.

Looks like another trend…

Through November, 2011.
Indicators Long Term Participation Rate
Labor participation rate for the past forty years. Ages 25-54 are used to eliminate effects of aging population.

NBER recessions indicated in gray.

Through December, 2012
Employment Population Ratio Employment/Popluation Ratio: changes after start of recession.

Another distinctive graph.

Through November, 2011.

Industrial capacity and production

Industrial Capacity Industrial capacity: changes after start of recession.

This data has experienced a significant downward revision over time…

Through September, 2011.
Capacity Industrial Capacity: long term changes
Month to month change in industrial capacity, three month moving average.

Interesting that a decline in capacity, even in recessions, is a recent event, and the large overall negative change in this recession is unique in the past forty years.

This data has experienced a significant downward revision over time…

NBER recessions indicated in gray.

Through September, 2011
Industrial Production
Industrial production during last thirty-five years of recessions

Through November, 2012
Peak Industrial Production
RecessionPeakRecovered
1974 11/19732/1977
1981 8/198111/1983
1990 9/19905/1992
2001 9/200010/2004
2008 12/2007 
Peak Employment NBER Recessions
RecessionDate StartEnd
1970March, 1970 12/196911/1970
1974July, 1974 11/19733/1975
1980March, 1981 1/19807/1980
1981July, 1981 7/198111/1982
1990June, 1990 7/19903/1991
2001February, 2001 3/200111/2001
2008January, 2008 12/20076/2009

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